{"id":6490,"date":"2024-05-14T09:27:50","date_gmt":"2024-05-14T14:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/report\/vietnam-economic-update-report-q1-2024\/"},"modified":"2025-03-18T07:28:34","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T12:28:34","slug":"vietnam-economic-update-report-q1-2024","status":"publish","type":"report","link":"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/report\/vietnam-economic-update-report-q1-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Vietnam Economic Update Report, Q1 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id='eur-section1'><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"red-text\">Vietnam&#8217;s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2024 reaches the highest record of the same period during the period of 2020-2023<\/h3>\n<h4>Vietnam&#8217;s economy experienced a robust 5.66% growth in the first quarter of 2024, exceeding the growth rates for the same period from 2020 to 2023.<\/h4>\n<p>The industry and construction sectors were the key drivers for the economy, with a 6.28% increase in growth rate, accounting for 41.68% of the total national growth. The impressive growth of these sectors was directly fueled by the government\u2019s policy of encouraging public investment.<\/p>\n<p>Focus on promoting tourism and trade resulted in a 6.12% expansion of the service sector in the first quarter. Due to this growth, the service sector now comprises over 52.2% of Vietnam\u2019s GDP growth. The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors are showing signs of recovery, though at a more moderate pace with a growth rate of 2.98%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"f9edec\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f9edec;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-7335 size-full not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1170\" height=\"723\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170.png 1170w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170-1024x633.png 1024w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170-768x475.png 768w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-growth-rates-2020-2024-1170-750x463.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1170px) 100vw, 1170px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing played a crucial role in driving Vietnam\u2019s economic expansion. The processing and manufacturing industry saw a surge of 6.98%, contributing 1.73 percentage points to overall growth. Additionally, electricity production and distribution experienced a remarkable growth of 11.97%, adding 0.45 percentage points. Water supply, waste, and wastewater management and treatment grew by 4.99%, making a smaller yet significant contribution of 0.03 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing has been central to Vietnam\u2019s export economy since the The Doi Moi economic reforms were a series of significant changes initiated in 1986 by the Communist Party of Vietnam, marking a shift away from a Soviet-style, centrally planned economy and towards a \u201csocialist-oriented market economy. Its strategic Southeast Asian location, stable politics, and affordable labor force have transformed the country into an emerging manufacturing hub. Vietnam\u2019s manufacturing sector is reaping the benefits of a global manufacturing relocation wave from China. With its numerous advantages, Vietnam is emerging as a top choice for foreign businesses seeking new manufacturing hubs.<\/p>\n<p>Vietnam\u2019s strong economic ties with developed nations like South Korea and the United States, coupled with its supportive government policies and attractive incentives, have proven instrumental in luring major corporations like Samsung, Apple, Intel, and Nvidia to expand or establish new manufacturing plants in the country. This influx of foreign investment is fueling the growth of Vietnam\u2019s manufacturing industry and is expected to continue driving its expansion in the coming years.<\/p>\n<p>Within the service sector, trade activities were buoyant, and tourism rebounded strongly. This resurgence can be attributed to favorable visa policies and effective tourism stimulus initiatives. Noteworthy service subsectors driving the growth include:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Transportation and warehousing: 10.58% increase, adding 0.68 percentage points to growth.<\/li>\n<li>Accommodation and catering services: 8.34% increase, adding 0.24 percentage points.<\/li>\n<li>Wholesale and retail trade: 6.94% increase, adding 0.76 percentage points.<\/li>\n<li>Financial, banking, and insurance activities: 5.2% increase, adding 0.32 percentage points.<\/li>\n<li>Information and communication sector: 4.14% increase, adding 0.28 percentage points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While the growth rate of 5.66% for Q1 2024 outpaces the 3.41% expansion in the same period of 2023, it is slightly below Bloomberg\u2019s forecast of 6.3% and marks a decrease from the previous quarter\u2019s growth of 6.72%. This slowdown can be partly attributed to a dip in smartphone and automobile production.<\/p>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"f4e9e8\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #f4e9e8;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7337 size-full not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-gdp-structure-q1-2024-780.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"533\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-gdp-structure-q1-2024-780.png 780w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-gdp-structure-q1-2024-780-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-gdp-structure-q1-2024-780-768x525.png 768w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-gdp-structure-q1-2024-780-750x513.png 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Investment remains a vital factor in Vietnam\u2019s growth trajectory. Realized social investment capital at its current price reached USD 613.9 trillion VND, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Foreign direct investment (FDI) also contributed positively, as capital realized in Vietnam in the first 3 months of 2024 for FDI projects totaled $4.63 billion, representing a 7.1% year-on-year increase.<\/p>\n<p>Inflationary pressures continue, as CPI increased by 3.77% over the same period last year and core inflation rose by 2.81%. However, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV bank and a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, remains optimistic that Vietnam can achieve its target GDP growth of 6-6.5% this year.<\/p>\n<p>Addressing concerns surrounding potential power shortages, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh assured foreign investors that the prior year\u2019s challenges would not repeat, citing efforts to ramp up coal imports. According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO), Vietnam\u2019s electricity output in the first quarter increased by 11.4% from 2023 to 65.5 billion kWh.<\/p>\n<p>Four new laws addressing land use, real estate, housing, and credit institutions are anticipated to positively influence the market starting in 2025. Early response to these legislative changes has been favorable.<\/p>\n<p>With public debt, budget deficits, and financial obligations remaining within targets set by the National Assembly, the government retains fiscal flexibility to potentially introduce further economic stimulus measures.<\/p>\n<div class=\"grey-bg\"><\/p>\n<div id='eur-section2'><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"red-text\">Vietnam Posts $8.08 Billion Trade Surplus in Q1 2024, Growth Continues<\/h3>\n<h4>Vietnam experienced a remarkable surge in export growth during the first quarter of 2024, overcoming considerable challenges of the rising shipping cost.<\/h4>\n<p>Vietnam experienced a remarkable surge in export growth during the first quarter of 2024, overcoming considerable challenges posed by rising shipping costs. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea inflated the cost of shipping cargo from Vietnam by a notable 55% to 73%. Despite these obstacles, Vietnam\u2019s trade activity flourished, fueled by increased demand in major export markets and a continued economic recovery post-COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>Many of Vietnam\u2019s major export markets have rebounded from recession, signaling a positive outlook for the country\u2019s import and export activities. Vietnam\u2019s key market, the United States, saw strong growth with an estimated turnover of 26.06 billion USD, accounting for 28% of total exports and a 25.5% increase compared to last year\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n<p>China follows, estimated at 12.68 billion USD with a 5.2% increase (compared to last year\u2019s decline). The EU market is estimated at 12.1 billion USD, a 16.3% increase (also in contrast to last year\u2019s decline). Korea is estimated at 6.6 billion USD (12.9% increase), and Japan at 5.7 billion USD (6.4% increase), both showing improvement after previous declines.<\/p>\n<p>In Q1 2024, the combined value of imports and exports reached a substantial $178.04 billion, marking a 15.5% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This expansion was led by a 17% year-on-year jump in goods exports, totaling $93.06 billion. Imports also saw strong growth, rising 13.9% to $84.94 billion. As a result, Vietnam achieved a significant trade surplus of $8.08 billion, exceeding the $4.93 billion surplus recorded in the same quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"aba7a7\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #aba7a7;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7339 size-full not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-cargo-port-780c.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"409\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-cargo-port-780c.jpg 780w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-cargo-port-780c-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-cargo-port-780c-768x403.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-cargo-port-780c-750x393.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Both the domestic and foreign-invested sectors played a critical role in Vietnam\u2019s trade performance. The domestic economic sector generated $25.21 billion in exports, representing a 26.2% increase and accounting for 27.1% of Vietnam\u2019s total export turnover. Meanwhile, the foreign-directed investment (FDI) sector, which includes crude oil, was responsible for $67.85 billion in exports, reflecting a 13.9% increase and a 72.9% share of overall export activity.<\/p>\n<p>Service trade also witnessed considerable growth during the quarter. Service exports were estimated at $5.67 billion, a 24.7% year-on-year increase, while service imports reached $8 billion, rising 26.8%. This resulted in a service trade deficit of $2.33 billion.<\/p>\n<p>The United States maintained its position as Vietnam\u2019s leading export market with a turnover of $26.2 billion. China continued to be the largest import market for Vietnam with a turnover of $29.4 billion.<\/p>\n<p>\n<\/div>\n<div id='eur-section3'><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"red-text\">FDI disbursement in the first 4 months hit a 5-year record and flows strongly into manufacturing and real estate<\/h3>\n<h4>Foreign direct investment (FDI) disbursement in the first four months of 2024 reaching $6.28 billion, 7.4% increase from the previous year, Vietnam broke the highest four-month amount record in the past five years.<\/h4>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"7b8a95\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #7b8a95;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7341 size-full not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/ho-chi-minh-city-real-estate-617.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"617\" height=\"463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/ho-chi-minh-city-real-estate-617.jpg 617w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/ho-chi-minh-city-real-estate-617-300x225.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 617px) 100vw, 617px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The processing and manufacturing sector was the dominant force behind this FDI surge, attracting a substantial $4.93 billion or 78.5% of total disbursements. This solidifies Vietnam\u2019s status as a Southeast Asian manufacturing powerhouse, driven by its skilled workforce, developing infrastructure, and pro-business policies.<\/p>\n<p>Real estate followed as the second-largest beneficiary, receiving $607.6 million in FDI. This signals sustained growth in Vietnam\u2019s industrial real estate market, spurred by foreign investment flows. As global companies seek to establish production centers, Vietnam\u2019s logistics sector is expanding with a focus on ready-built factories and warehouses.<\/p>\n<p>FDI is also providing a boost to Vietnam\u2019s infrastructure development. Investments are improving transportation networks and services within industrial parks, and many new industrial park projects have been approved.<\/p>\n<p>To uphold its regional competitiveness, Vietnam must prioritize ongoing advancements in infrastructure, workforce skillsets, and investment incentives.<\/p>\n<p>These impressive FDI figures paint an optimistic picture of Vietnam\u2019s economic growth. This trend demonstrates Vietnam\u2019s commitment to fostering a pro-business environment and its strategic focus on manufacturing and infrastructure development. With its youthful workforce, Vietnam is poised to further solidify its role as a leading Southeast Asian center for both manufacturing and investment.<\/p>\n<div class=\"grey-bg\"><\/p>\n<div id='eur-section4'><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"red-text\">Surging Global Interest: Investing in Electronics and Semiconductors in Vietnam<\/h3>\n<h4>Vietnam&#8217;s potential in the global supply chain is attracting significant interest from foreign corporations, particularly in the electronics, semiconductor manufacturing, and renewable energy sectors.<\/h4>\n<p>This trend is evident in the 73% year-on-year surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) registration, reaching $7.1 billion in the first four months of 2024.<\/p>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"60899f\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #60899f;\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-7343 size-full not-transparent\" src=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-semiconductor-manufacturing-780.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"780\" height=\"408\" srcset=\"https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-semiconductor-manufacturing-780.jpg 780w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-semiconductor-manufacturing-780-300x157.jpg 300w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-semiconductor-manufacturing-780-768x402.jpg 768w, https:\/\/arc-group.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/vietnam-semiconductor-manufacturing-780-750x392.jpg 750w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 780px) 100vw, 780px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A key driver of this interest is the Vietnamese government\u2019s proactive approach to attracting foreign investment in the semiconductor industry. Vietnam is actively refining its legal system, mechanisms, and policies to improve the investment environment, creating attractive incentives for technology companies and conglomerates specializing in semiconductors and electronic chips. This strategy is proving successful, as a growing number of major corporations are expressing interest in Vietnam\u2019s semiconductor sector.<\/p>\n<p>Major corporations like Intel, Samsung, Synopsys, Qualcomm, Infineon, and Amkor already have a presence in Vietnam and are planning to further expand their investments. This ongoing commitment highlights Vietnam\u2019s growing importance in the global semiconductor supply chain.<\/p>\n<p>The recent commitment from the US President to support Vietnam\u2019s participation in the global high-tech value chain, particularly the chip and semiconductor industry, has opened significant opportunities for Vietnam. This has spurred interest from large US semiconductor companies like Nvidia, Apple, Marvell, and GlobalFoundries, which are actively considering establishing chip factories in Vietnam.<\/p>\n<p>Vietnam boasts great potential for developing its semiconductor industry, possessing a young, innovative workforce with relevant training. Companies are increasingly recognizing the value of Vietnam\u2019s skilled labor pool, moving away from solely focusing on cheap labor costs.<\/p>\n<p>The Vietnamese government\u2019s commitment to developing the domestic semiconductor industry, along with its supportive policies and incentives, is a major advantage for corporations looking to invest in Vietnam.<\/p>\n<p>The increasing demand from corporations to invest in Vietnam\u2019s semiconductor industry presents a promising opportunity for Vietnam\u2019s economic growth and its role in the global technology sector. With continued government support and a skilled workforce, Vietnam is well-positioned to become a major player in the global semiconductor supply chain.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"h1 lined\">About this report<\/h2>\n<p>This report was compiled with contributions from the team of business experts across ARC Group\u2019s global offices.<\/p>\n<p>ARC Group is an advisory firm specialised in supporting western companies operating in Asia and beyond. Our mission is to bridge the gap between global business ecosystems and key markets worldwide. 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